Article – The new US Chamber economic forecast for 2026 has sparked mixed reactions among Rockford’s small business community, with local entrepreneurs carefully weighing how national projections might impact their operations in the coming year.
Released yesterday during the Chamber’s annual economic outlook briefing, the forecast paints a nuanced picture of moderate growth amid persistent challenges. According to the report, the US economy is projected to expand by approximately 2.3% in 2026, slightly below the 2.6% growth anticipated for the current year.
“We’re looking at what I’d call a ‘resilient slowdown’ scenario,” said Suzanne Clark, President and CEO of the US Chamber, during the presentation. “Not the robust growth we’d hope for, but certainly not the recession many feared just eighteen months ago.”
The Chamber’s analysis highlights several key factors shaping the economic landscape. Labor market normalization continues with unemployment expected to hold steady around 4.2% nationally. Meanwhile, inflation projections suggest a moderation to 2.5% by mid-2026, approaching the Federal Reserve’s long-term target.
For Rockford business owners like Marcus Henderson, who operates Rockford Roasters, a specialty coffee shop downtown, these national trends have direct local implications.
“The Chamber’s report gives me some cautious optimism,” Henderson told me when I visited his shop yesterday. “The inflation outlook is particularly important for my business since we’ve been absorbing higher costs for everything from coffee beans to paper goods. If prices really do stabilize as they’re projecting, that gives me more confidence to invest in expansion.”
The Chamber’s forecast specifically addressed small business challenges, noting that access to capital will likely improve gradually as interest rates stabilize. The report projects the Federal Reserve will implement two quarter-point rate cuts in 2026, potentially bringing relief to business owners seeking financing.
This prospect resonates with Jennifer Perez, founder of GreenSpace Landscaping, who has postponed equipment purchases due to elevated borrowing costs. “I’ve been holding off on financing new trucks and equipment because the math just didn’t work with higher rates,” Perez explained. “If the Chamber’s projections about rate cuts are accurate, that could change our growth trajectory for 2026.”
The economic outlook wasn’t uniformly positive, however. The Chamber identified persistent headwinds including ongoing supply chain recalibrations and regulatory compliance costs, which it estimates will increase by 4.7% for the average small business in 2026.
This projection particularly concerned Richard Oakes, owner of Heartland Manufacturing, a midsize producer of specialized industrial components. “The regulatory burden keeps growing year after year,” Oakes said during a Rockford Chamber of Commerce discussion forum. “The national Chamber’s forecast confirms what we’ve experienced – compliance costs are eating into margins that could otherwise go toward hiring or innovation.”
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests Rockford’s unemployment rate currently stands at 5.3%, above the national average of 3.9%. This local economic context means national trends often hit differently here.
Rockford Mayor Thomas McNamara acknowledged this reality in a statement responding to the Chamber’s forecast. “While national indicators show continued growth, we recognize that Rockford’s economic recovery remains uneven. We’re focused on leveraging federal infrastructure investments and workforce development initiatives to ensure our local businesses can capitalize on the moderate growth projected for 2026.”
The Chamber’s report also highlighted several bright spots, including continued strength in technology investment, with artificial intelligence implementation expected to contribute approximately 0.4 percentage points to overall GDP growth in 2026. Additionally, consumer spending is forecast to increase by 2.1%, supported by modest real wage growth of 1.3%.
For Vanessa Washington, who recently opened Northside Tech Solutions providing IT support to area businesses, these projections align with what she’s experiencing on the ground. “Small businesses here are finally embracing technology investments they postponed during the pandemic and subsequent inflation spike,” Washington observed. “If the Chamber’s forecast holds true, I expect to see continued demand for our services as companies look to technology to improve efficiency.”
The Rockford Chamber of Commerce plans to host a workshop next month helping local businesses interpret the national forecast and develop strategic plans for 2026. According to Executive Director Caroline Henson, “Our role is helping translate these national economic signals into actionable insights for Rockford’s business community.”
Economists from Northern Illinois University’s College of Business have cautioned that regional variations may lead to different outcomes than the national forecast suggests. Professor Martin Reeves, who specializes in regional economics, noted, “Manufacturing-heavy communities like Rockford often experience different economic trajectories than the national average. Local business owners should consider both the Chamber’s national outlook and regional factors when planning.”
The US Chamber report concludes with policy recommendations it believes would strengthen the 2026 outlook, including streamlining permitting processes for infrastructure projects, expanding workforce training initiatives, and establishing more predictable regulatory frameworks.
As Rockford’s business community digests these projections, the prevailing sentiment seems to be cautious preparation rather than either unbridled optimism or pessimism. As coffee shop owner Henderson put it, “The Chamber’s forecast gives us some guideposts, but ultimately, we’ll adapt to whatever comes our way. That’s what small business owners do.”
