From a weathered pier in New Bedford, the sound of halyards clinking against masts mixes with a political pitch. Shawn Oliver, a local councilor turned lieutenant governor hopeful, stood before a line of fishing boats this week. He spoke of economic hardship and unfair regulations. His message was tailored for this audience. His location was a calculated choice.
Southeastern Massachusetts is changing. Bristol and Plymouth counties are slowly transforming into the state’s most fertile ground for Republican ambitions. This shift offers a local haven for conservatives. Statewide, the GOP remains muted against a deep-blue Beacon Hill. Here, it finds a potential foothold. “That is the hotbed of the Republican Party in Massachusetts today,” said gubernatorial candidate Brian Shortsleeve, Oliver’s running mate.
The data tells a clear story. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump secured his strongest margins in Massachusetts here. He won 48% of the vote in Bristol County, his highest share in the state. He carried six of its twenty communities by double-digit margins. In neighboring Plymouth County, he won over half the cities and towns. Trump, of course, lost Massachusetts overall with just 36% support. But his performance in the southeast was a flare signal for the GOP.
This isn’t just about presidential politics. Down-ballot, Republican candidates are emerging in places they haven’t for generations. For the first time in over fifty years, a Republican is running for Bristol County District Attorney. A competitive GOP primary is underway to challenge one of the Senate’s most powerful Democrats. The party flipped a state Senate seat here in 2024. It had been held by Democrats for decades.
“The reason there’s a lot of energy down here is because people here are struggling to pay their bills,” said Republican gubernatorial candidate Michael Minogue. His campaign has scheduled over a dozen events in the region since December. “They’re working-class entrepreneurs, and they have real grit down here. And so they want accountability.”
Political strategists point to a potent mix of economic anxiety and a feeling of neglect. The region’s working-class and lower-income communities feel forgotten by a Democratic-dominated State House. “We’ve been overlooked by a lot of different administrations,” said Paul Anthony. He manages a business that sells fuel to New Bedford’s fishing fleet. He spoke after meeting with Shortsleeve near a state-run pier forced closed due to disrepair. “We haven’t had really good representation up in Beacon Hill for a long time.”
Demographic changes may also be playing a role. Cities like Fall River have seen their Latino population double since 2010. Trump’s appeal among some white working-class and Latino voters found traction here. In 2024, he became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Fall River in a century.
This political realignment has created fiercely independent voters. They are willing to split tickets in ways that defy easy partisan labels. “They’re practical, and they’re not blindly partisan,” said State Senator Michael Rodrigues. He is a powerful Westport Democrat whose district includes Fall River. “They’ll vote for Democrats. They’ll vote for Republicans. They’ll vote for Donald Trump, and then they’ll vote to remove Tom Hodgson.” Hodgson was the region’s leading Republican voice as Bristol County Sheriff for years.
| Strategic Imperatives for Republicans |
|---|
| 1. Propose solutions to economic anxiety |
| 2. Address feelings of neglect |
| 3. Engage with diverse communities |
| 4. Maintain a presence in local events |
| 5. Build relationships with independent voters |
| 6. Focus on areas with Republican potential |
The strategic imperative for Republicans is now clear. To win statewide, a candidate must run up the score in the southeast. “If the Republican at the top of the ticket does not do well in Worcester and Bristol County, it’s over,” said GOP strategist Peter Hoogerzeil. He advises Seth Aitken, the Republican running for Bristol County D.A. Hoogerzeil notes voters here “feel the squeeze” and are actively looking for alternatives.
Some Democrats attribute the shift to a broader national disillusionment. State Representative Christopher Markey, a Democrat running for D.A., frames it as a reaction to perceived dishonesty. “The Democratic Party and the Biden administration lied to everybody,” Markey said. “They lied about [Biden’s] physical condition. It was an affront to everybody.”
For Republicans, the path forward is grounded in this geography. Longtime strategist Jim Conroy, who advised former Governor Charlie Baker, puts it in simple terms. “You certainly need to hunt where the ducks are,” he said. Right now, for the Massachusetts GOP, the ducks are gathering on the piers and in the old mill towns of the South Coast. They are listening to promises of revitalization and accountability. The political currents here are shifting. Both parties are now scrambling to navigate the new tide.
