In the political theater of Rhode Island, a familiar scene is reaching its climax. Governor Dan McKee, who ascended to the office upon Gina Raimondo’s departure for Washington, finds himself in a precarious position. With the September 9 Democratic primary looming, a new Emerson College/WPRI poll presents a stark reality: McKee trails former CVS executive Helena Foulkes by 15 points, 45% to 30%. For the incumbent, the final 15 days of this campaign are not just a sprint; they are an attempt to pull off a political miracle.
The numbers are sobering. The same pollsters showed a 20-point deficit for McKee back in May. While he has cut that margin, campaigns are not graded on improvement but on victory. When Emerson’s model allocates the substantial bloc of undecided voters based on their leanings, the race becomes a rout: 61% for Foulkes to McKee’s 39%. “Dan McKee has closed the gap some, but he’s still well behind with 15 days to go,” WPRI political analyst Joe Fleming noted. “Time is running out to make up the ground.”
McKee’s vulnerability is rooted in a confluence of long-term political weakness and a singular, devastating crisis. His approval ratings have been persistently low, but the Washington Bridge closure has been politically catastrophic. The Emerson/WPRI poll finds that only 22% of likely Democratic primary voters approve of his handling of the issue, while 63% disapprove. Furthermore, just 22% believe the state is on the right track. This profound discontent forms the bedrock of Foulkes’ challenge.
The demographic divides within the poll are particularly revealing. McKee’s support is inversely correlated with education level. He leads overwhelmingly among voters with a high school education or less. However, among college graduates, Foulkes leads 49% to 23%, and her advantage swells to 58% to 23% among those with postgraduate degrees. While the sample size for the least-educated voters is small, the trend is unmistakable and speaks to a campaign battling on two distinct political terrains.
- McKee’s persistent low approval ratings
- Washington Bridge closure crisis
- 22% approval for handling the bridge issue
- Demographic divides among voters
- Foulkes’ funding and television advertising
- Union endorsements as a potential asset for McKee
Finances tell another part of the story. Foulkes, leveraging her personal wealth and fundraising network, has poured millions into television advertising. McKee, facing a significant resource disadvantage, was forced to go dark on TV for weeks to conserve funds for the final stretch. This airwave imbalance has allowed Foulkes to define the narrative around her business leadership and cast McKee’s administration as one of crisis mismanagement.
McKee is not without assets. He has secured a roster of union endorsements, a traditional source of strength in Rhode Island Democratic politics. The poll shows the candidates statistically tied among union households. Yet, as Fleming points out, McKee “would need to win the unions by a lot” to offset his deficits elsewhere. His failure to secure the coveted AFL-CIO endorsement was a symbolic blow, highlighting the limits of his insider support.
The governor’s debate performances have been competent, with one notable exception. His declaration in last week’s WPRI debate that “I am the state of Rhode Island” was a bizarre moment that opponents quickly seized upon as evidence of an inflated self-view. For the most part, however, he has held his own against Foulkes, attacking her tenure at CVS and portraying himself as a steady hand. The problem for McKee is that “holding his own” appears insufficient to alter the fundamental dynamics of the race.
Political miracles, by definition, are rare. They typically require a game-changing event, a catastrophic error by the frontrunner, or a sudden, overwhelming wave of enthusiasm. McKee has banked on the first two, hammering Foulkes’ corporate record and waiting for a misstep. Foulkes has run a disciplined, well-funded campaign that has largely avoided major unforced errors. The enthusiasm gap appears to favor the challenger, whose message of change and competent management is resonating with a Democratic electorate weary of scandal and infrastructure failure.
Fifteen days is an eternity in politics, but only if a campaign has momentum, money, and a message that is breaking through. McKee is critically short on the first two, and the third is drowned out by the persistent drumbeat of the Washington Bridge crisis. He is fighting not just Helena Foulkes, but the accumulated weight of public perception. As the primary clock ticks down, the governor’s path to victory narrows to a slit. Without a dramatic shift, the final act of this political drama may simply be a confirmation of the poll’s central finding: Rhode Island Democrats are ready for a change.
