In a suburb halfway between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, a crowd chants for a change in leadership. They shout the name of Gadi Eisenkot, a former general. Yet the man dominating the event is not even in the room. That man is Benjamin Netanyahu.
The question for Israel as it votes is simple. Can Netanyahu pull off his greatest trick yet? He has defined the country’s politics for thirty years. Every rival runs against him. The election is not about left or right. It is about Bibi or not Bibi.
For an observer, the current stalemate is puzzling. The polls show the two blocs nearly tied. This is a mystery. The greatest disaster in Israel’s modern history happened under his watch. Hamas slaughtered 1,200 people on October 7, 2023. The attacks at the Nova festival and southern kibbutzim remain fresh wounds.
Netanyahu promised to destroy Hamas. That did not happen. Instead, the war has dragged on for over a year. It has severely damaged Israel’s global standing. The country faces growing international isolation and accusations of war crimes.
Before that crisis came the judicial overhaul. Netanyahu’s government pushed to weaken the Supreme Court. This move split the nation deeply. Massive protests filled the streets for months. Then there is his ongoing corruption trial. Three separate cases accuse him of bribery and fraud.
His closest aides face their own scandal. They are accused of taking money from Qatar. The so-called Qatargate affair alleges they boosted Doha’s image for cash.
Given this record, why is the race so close? The answer starts with his base. Netanyahu has spent decades cultivating a loyal following. Their support is unshakeable. Many believe he alone can guarantee Israel’s security.
- Warnings before October 7
- Failure to act on intelligence
- Critics blaming military and intelligence chiefs
- Master political operator
- Excels at dividing opponents
- Possibility of forming a government without winning most seats
This possibility has sparked a fierce reaction. You can see it in airports worldwide. Planes are full of expat Israelis flying home to vote. They feel a duty to remove Netanyahu from power. I witnessed this on a flight packed with returning voters.
That same determination was visible at a state ceremony in Jerusalem last week. It marked the anniversary of Yitzhak Rabin’s assassination. Rabin was a prime minister killed for pursuing peace. His memory still haunts a nation that has known little peace since.
The polls are deadlocked. Netanyahu is a political magician. Yet the sight of those young people flying home offers a flicker of hope to his opponents. They believe the age of Bibi might finally be ending.
| Event | Date | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Hamas attacks | October 7, 2023 | 1,200 deaths |
| Judicial overhaul | Before current crisis | National protests |
| Corruption trial | Ongoing | Claims of bribery and fraud |
| Qatargate affair | Recent | Scandal involving aides |
| Anniversary of Rabin’s assassination | Last week | Symbol of peace |
| Election Day | Tuesday | Potential leadership change |
Tuesday’s result will test that belief. It will decide if Israel continues on its current path. Or if after three decades it chooses a different direction.
