The third quarter earnings season shifts its focus this week from traditional finance to the volatile world of crypto. Three major companies—Robinhood, Coinbase, and Strategy—will report results that offer a starkly different picture of how to profit from digital assets. For investors, the numbers will reveal more than just revenue. They will test a persistent market paradox where a company’s stock price often moves independently of its reported profit or loss. This disconnect has defined the year for these stocks. Understanding it requires looking past the headline earnings per share.
Robinhood reports after the market closes on Tuesday. Analysts tracked by ChartRow expect earnings per share of $0.56. That compares to $0.61 a year ago. Revenue is seen rising to $1.41 billion according to Hudson Labs consensus. That would be a 16 percent increase. The company has a history of beating profit estimates. It did so in five of its last six quarters. Yet its stock fell after each of those six reports. The declines ranged from 2.9 percent to over 13 percent. Shares dropped again last Thursday and Friday heading into this week’s release. The market’s tepid reaction suggests investors are focused on challenges beyond a single quarter’s profit. They are weighing higher operational costs and the competitive landscape for retail trading. This quarter also introduces a new variable.
It is the first full quarter for Robinhood Chain. That is the company’s own blockchain network for tokenized assets. It launched on July 1. ARK Invest estimated the network generated about $51 million in revenue last quarter. For context, that estimate surpasses ARK’s projection for Ethereum’s revenue in the same period. The real question for Tuesday is whether this new engine for growth can finally change the stock’s negative earnings day pattern.
Coinbase follows on Thursday evening. The forecast here is for a loss. Analysts expect a loss of $0.18 per share according to ChartRow. A year ago, the company posted a profit of $1.44 per share. Revenue consensus compiled by MarketBeat sits at $1.20 billion. That would represent a steep 36 percent drop from the third quarter of 2025. If Coinbase posts an adjusted loss, it will mark its third consecutive quarter in the red. It has also missed profit estimates in each of its last three reports. Its second quarter revenue of $1.22 billion fell short of the $1.29 billion analysts expected. Yet the stock’s reaction to negative news has been unpredictable.
After missing estimates in February, shares jumped 16.5 percent. They gained 4.2 percent after a miss in May. The stock fell 10.6 percent after its July report however. This inconsistency makes Thursday’s report a volatility trigger. Investors will scrutinize user metrics and transaction revenue closely. They want signs that core trading activity is stabilizing independent of crypto price swings. The stock’s 27 percent decline for the year indicates deep skepticism.
Strategy also reports Thursday. It hosts an investor webinar at 5 p.m. Eastern Time. The biggest number is already public. In an October 5 filing with the SEC, the company estimated a $20.91 billion gain on its Bitcoin holdings for the quarter. It holds 847,666 BTC. The average purchase price was about $75,437 per coin. Because Strategy marks its Bitcoin to market each quarter, its earnings are directly tied to the cryptocurrency’s price. With that massive gain already disclosed, the analyst EPS estimate of $21.50 per share from ChartRow is almost secondary.
The investor call will likely focus on two newer developments. On October 19, Strategy’s board increased its preferred stock buyback authorization from $2 billion to $3 billion. That signals confidence in its capital allocation. Separately, index provider MSCI approved new rules on October 15. Those rules target companies that resemble investment vehicles more than operating businesses. Strategy could face exclusion from certain indexes under these guidelines. That risk adds a layer of uncertainty for institutional holders. Of the three companies, Strategy’s stock has performed best this year. It is down only 3.9 percent.
The contrast between these reports is instructive. Strategy’s paper profit is a direct function of Bitcoin’s price appreciation. Coinbase’s expected revenue decline comes during that same market rise. This highlights a fundamental divide. One company profits from holding the asset. The other profits from facilitating customer transactions. When trading volume stagnates, as it has for Coinbase, revenue falls even if asset prices rise. For investors this week, the key is to look at what drove the results. Look at user growth, trading volume, and operational costs. The raw earnings figure often tells less than half the story.
This is especially true in a sector where stock prices have repeatedly decided to march to their own beat.
- Investor reactions can be unpredictable.
- Operational costs impact stock prices.
- User growth is crucial for trading platforms.
- Tokenized assets introduce new revenue streams.
- Market trends can differ from company performance.
- Analyst forecasts may not reflect actual outcomes.
| Company | Expected EPS | Reported EPS Last Year | Expected Revenue | Stock Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robinhood | $0.56 | $0.61 | $1.41 billion | Declined 2.9% to over 13% |
| Coinbase | -$0.18 | $1.44 | $1.20 billion | Declined 27% for the year |
| Strategy | $21.50 | N/A | $20.91 billion gain | Down 3.9% |
