Netanyahu’s Political Future Hinges on Israeli Elections Amidst Regional Tensions

For nearly two decades, Benjamin Netanyahu has defined Israeli politics. He faced a moment of profound vulnerability after the Hamas attacks of October 7th, 2023. A catastrophic security failure on his watch should have ended his career. Yet here we are. Netanyahu is fighting for his political life in an election that is, above all else, a verdict on him.

You cannot understand this vote without understanding October 7th. The trauma hangs over everything. The campaign posters, the debates, the stump speeches all return to that day. Netanyahu’s opponents, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, call his government the “failure government.” They demand accountability for the intelligence and military lapses that allowed the massacre. Eisenkot, who lost his son in the Gaza war, argues Netanyahu has no plan for victory, only for endless conflict.

Netanyahu’s response has been a familiar blend of defiance and fear. He claims betrayal by parts of the security establishment. He points to military campaigns against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. His campaign slogan warns voters that a vote for his rivals is a vote for a Palestinian state. This is a potent scare tactic in a country where support for a two-state solution has cratered, due in no small part to Netanyahu’s own long tenure.

The election is also a referendum on the deep divisions Netanyahu has cultivated and exploited. Before the war, his government pushed a polarizing plan to weaken Israel’s judiciary. This sparked historic protests, with critics accusing Netanyahu of gutting checks and balances to derail his own corruption trial. That fight is frozen, not forgotten. His allies want to revive it.

• The mandatory draft system and its exemptions
• Polarization over judiciary reforms
• Military service disparities
• Public opinion on Palestinian statehood
• Accountability for security failures
• Defiance and fear in Netanyahu’s campaign

Another bitter divide concerns military service. Israel has a mandatory draft, but ultra Orthodox men have long received exemptions. Netanyahu, reliant on politically powerful religious parties, has protected this system. Resentment has boiled over as hundreds of soldiers have died and tens of thousands serve repeated reserve tours. The families of those serving ask why the burden is not shared equally.

Who will win? The system makes a clear outcome unlikely. Israelis vote for party lists, not directly for prime minister. No single party ever wins a majority. The leader who can cobble together 61 seats in the 120 seat Knesset gets to govern. Polls show a dead heat between Netanyahu’s bloc of religious and nationalist parties and the bloc opposing him. Arab parties are running strong campaigns, which could prevent either Jewish bloc from reaching 61 seats on its own.

This could lead to chaos. Weeks of messy negotiations between a dozen parties are probable. Netanyahu and Eisenkot both say they will not include Arab parties in their coalition. Eisenkot also says he will not serve under Netanyahu. Someone may have to break a promise. A unity government between the rivals is one possibility. Another is a failed negotiation, leading to new elections and leaving Netanyahu in power as a caretaker.

Notably absent from the debate is any serious discussion of the Palestinians. The gruesome details of October 7th hardened many Israeli hearts. Netanyahu has successfully framed the left as naive at best, treasonous at worst. The dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the future of Israeli occupation are not campaign issues. Palestinian observers express no hope that their lives will improve regardless of the winner.

Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told me this silence is unsustainable. The international outrage over Gaza and West Bank settler violence will force the next government to confront the issue. Sooner or later, they will have to deal with it.

So what is really at stake? Netanyahu’s legacy, certainly. A loss could end his long career in disgrace. A win would cement his reputation as the ultimate survivor. But more is on the line. Israel’s social cohesion, its relationship with its closest allies, and the very nature of its democracy are in the balance. The world is watching to see if Israelis believe the man in charge during the worst failure in their history is still the right man to lead.