For the finance chiefs of seasonal businesses, summer is more than a season. It is a quarterly report, an annual plan, and a multi-year strategic forecast compressed into a few frantic months. The numbers tell a stark story. A single misstep in pricing, a prolonged bout of bad weather, or a shift in consumer booking patterns can determine whether the entire fiscal year ends in the black or bleeds red ink.
This year, the early indicators have been broadly positive, a welcome relief after the pandemic’s devastation. The World Travel & Tourism Council estimates the global travel and tourism sector’s GDP contribution plummeted by $4.5 trillion during the Covid-19 crisis, with over 62 million jobs lost worldwide. The rebound has been robust. Europe’s TUI Group recently reported its best-ever first half, with a staggering 7.9 million summer bookings already secured for 2026. Expedia posted its highest first-quarter EBITDA margin in 15 years. Yet, beneath these headline figures, CFOs are navigating a new landscape of elongated planning cycles, climate volatility, and intense demand for finite experiences.
In Juneau, Alaska, Max Mertz feels this concentration acutely. As CFO and co-owner of Alaska Seaplanes, he knows that the window from mid-May to just after Labor Day generates roughly two-thirds of his company’s annual revenue. “It’s critical, honestly,” he tells me over the crackle of a satellite phone connection. His fleet of 20 aircraft connects remote fishing lodges, mining camps, and the millions of tourists seeking bear safaris and glacier flights. The demand signals are strong, often predicted a year out by lodge bookings and corporate bonus cycles in the lower 48 states.
But in Alaska, the financial model faces an immutable variable: weather. The dense, rolling fog that defines the Inside Passage can ground his entire operation for days. “Aviation is a high fixed-cost industry,” Mertz explains. “On a per-flight basis, higher volume covers those costs and drives your bottom line.” A grounded plane is a pure loss. His response has been heavy investment in reliability, spending multiple seven-figure sums on specialized navigation systems to squeeze more operational days from the short season. For him, financial strategy is literally a matter of seeing through the clouds.
This concept of a single, irreplaceable window is even more extreme in motorsports. Mike Morrisey, CFO of Green Savoree Racing Promotions for the past 31 seasons, oversees temporary street circuits in cities like St. Petersburg, Florida, and Portland, Oregon. “The summer is where you make your revenue,” he states plainly. A major race weekend is a 72-hour explosion of gate revenue, hospitality, sponsorships, and concessions. There are no do-overs. “When the checkered flag drops, we have crews out there tearing it all down,” he says. His leading indicators are ticket renewals and suite sales, which launch just weeks after the previous race ends. His capital is uniquely mobile—$4 million worth of portable aluminum grandstands and suites that live in a Florida warehouse before being trucked to Canada for the next event. His workforce balloons from under 50 year-round to 270 at the peak. His financial forecasting is a blend of fan loyalty logistics and heavyweight freight management.
In the world of luxury golf, the challenge isn’t creating demand, but managing perpetually scarce supply. Gordon Dalgleish, president of Perry Golf, has built a business around the hallowed links of Scotland and Ireland, a region effectively closed for half the year due to darkness and rain. “You cannot sell golf trips for November,” he says with a resigned chuckle. The season is brutally short, from late April to early October, with the sacred Old Course at St. Andrews—the “engine” of Scottish golf tourism—shutting down for weeks in autumn.
Dalgleish’s forecasting model has been fundamentally reshaped by post-pandemic consumer behavior. Before Covid, he had a predictable 12-month booking cycle. Today, he is fielding inquiries for July 2028 in the spring of 2026. He expects to have 40% to 50% of next summer’s bookings secured by this Christmas. “There’s an affluence slushing around in golf just now,” he observes, pointing to affluent Americans shifting spending from assets to exclusive experiences. Yet, the supply of premier tee times on Scotland’s roughly 25 “must-play” courses is static. His financial task is less about stimulating demand and more about allocating finite inventory across a booking window that now stretches years, not months.
For other CFOs, the seasonal challenge is one of portfolio diversification and predictive analytics. Josh Greear of Authority Brands manages 15 home services franchises, from swimming pool maintenance to mosquito control. Over 90% of revenue comes from these brands, each with a different summer trigger—a heat wave, a bug hatch, the school calendar. “The hardest time to manage labor is on the shoulder of the seasons,” Greear notes. Miss a sudden temperature spike with an understaffed HVAC team, and you forfeit revenue permanently. Overstaff in anticipation, and profitability evaporates.
- Investing in sophisticated forecasting
- Integrating hyper-local weather trends
- Utilizing historical demand data
- Tracking brand-specific variables
- Maintaining revenue across seasons
- Ensuring workforce efficiency
To navigate this, Greear’s team has invested in sophisticated, large-language-model-driven forecasting. Their models integrate hyper-local weather trends, historical demand, and brand-specific variables down to the ZIP code level. For 2026, the model already flags a potential for a milder-than-usual start to summer in many U.S. regions, which will dictate precise labor and marketing deployments for weather-sensitive brands. His success metrics are layered: revenue, market share gains, and, crucially, the financial health of his franchisees.
The ultimate hedge against seasonal risk, however, may be to escape the cycle altogether. Dustin Bertram, CFO of Youth Enrichment Brands, presides over a portfolio that includes US Sports Camps, i9 Sports, and School of Rock. The company’s roots are in summer camp, but it has deliberately smoothed the revenue curve. “As of 2025, less than 20% of our systemwide sales are derived from summer-based activities alone,” Bertram says. Year-round sports leagues, winter programs, and continuous music instruction have built a more stable financial foundation. “The platforms that win,” he concludes, “will be those that remain focused on the customer experience, maintain diversified offerings, exercise disciplined cost control, and invest in evolving their programs.”
| Challenges | Solutions |
|---|---|
| Weather Volatility | Heavy investment in reliability and navigation systems |
| Short Selling Seasons | Long-term booking cycles and customer experience focus |
| Sparse Supply | Strategic inventory allocation |
| Diverse Revenue Streams | Year-round programs to smooth income |
| Labor Management | Efficient workforce allocation based on demand |
| Predictive Analytics | Integration of advanced forecasting models |
When the last flight lands in Juneau and the final grandstand is packed away, the real work for these CFOs begins. The offseason is for forensic analysis and forward planning. Mertz will dissect the summer’s financials, budget for the next year, and evaluate fleet needs against projections from mining and lodge clients. Morrisey will calculate costs for capital upgrades and watch the velocity of ticket renewals like a hawk. Their strategies differ—deep expertise in a narrow window, technological forecasting, or strategic diversification—but their goal is identical: to master the concentrated chaos of summer and secure the financial year. In a world of increasingly volatile climate and consumer patterns, that mastery is what separates a thriving season from a lost year.
