The price of Hyperliquid, or HYPE, sits around $76 today. To hit a much talked about $90 target, it needs to gain 19.2 percent. That climb feels steep right now.
A glance at the numbers explains why. Over the past month, HYPE has fallen 17.1 percent. It is trading 22.9 percent below its September peak. Every uptick seems to meet immediate selling pressure. The token’s recent range, between $75 and $79, has become a stubborn ceiling. Breaking above $79 is the first real test for any bullish momentum.
Your concern about token supply is valid. There are 222.4 million HYPE in circulation now. But the total supply is capped at 1 billion. This means roughly 77 percent of all tokens are still locked, waiting to enter the market over time. This potential dilution casts a long shadow. At a $90 price, the fully diluted valuation – accounting for all those future tokens – would be a staggering $86 billion. New investment must not only push the price up but also absorb this coming supply.
The platform itself, Hyperliquid, is a decentralized exchange for perpetual futures. Its mechanics provide a natural buyer for the token. The protocol’s Assistance Fund collects trading fees and uses them to buy HYPE on the open market. More trading volume means more automatic purchases. Additionally, revenue from user deposits now adds another stream of capital for these buys.
Yet since September, these purchases have not been enough. Sellers and newly unlocked tokens have simply outpaced the buying pressure. This is the core dynamic you must watch. For HYPE to reverse its trend, the Assistance Fund’s buying needs to accelerate dramatically.
An intriguing factor is Hyperliquid Strategies, the public company that holds HYPE as its core treasury asset. On October 23, it expanded its stock buyback program to $100 million. This does not directly buy HYPE tokens. However, it reduces the company’s need to sell its HYPE holdings to support its stock price. This indirect support could ease a source of selling pressure on the token.
All eyes now turn to November 5. The company will host a webcast with updates for its last quarter. Any announcement about its HYPE treasury strategy will move markets. A commitment to hold or even accumulate more tokens would be a powerful signal. Without a positive catalyst from that event, the path to $90 this year looks closed.
The broader market adds another layer of difficulty. Bitcoin has struggled, down over 27 percent in the last 200 days while HYPE has surged. This recent period shows HYPE falling harder than Bitcoin. A weak Bitcoin environment in November and December would make that 19.2 percent climb for HYPE feel like a mountain.
So, what is the realistic path?
- HYPE must decisively break and hold above $79.
- The November 5 webcast must deliver confidence, not concern, about treasury management.
- Trading activity on the Hyperliquid platform needs to increase, fueling the Assistance Fund’s buyback engine.
- Market sentiment must improve to support upward price movement.
- The Assistance Fund must significantly increase its buying pressure.
- New investors should enter the market to absorb the supply.
If these three conditions align, a run at $90 in December is conceivable.
If HYPE cannot reclaim $79 after the webcast, the target likely slips into 2027. The $90 milestone represents more than a price. It is a test of whether organic protocol demand and strategic stewardship can overcome the persistent headwinds of supply and a cautious market. The next two weeks will provide critical clues.
