Let’s talk about XRP right now. It sits at $1.31, a long way down from its $3.65 high and feeling the pressure this month. The big question everyone is asking is simple: has it finally stopped falling? An AI model from Anthropic named Claude suggests there’s a 40 percent chance the recent low of $1.25 marks the bottom of this cycle. But that’s far from a guarantee. If that level breaks, the model points to a zone around $1.12 where selling could potentially exhaust itself. This isn’t just about price charts. You have to understand what’s underneath them. XRP’s market valuation is a hefty $83 billion, making it the fifth largest crypto. Yet many forget about its total supply of 100 billion tokens. With only about 63 billion in circulation today, the fully diluted valuation – accounting for all possible future tokens – is closer to $132 billion. Ripple’s escrowed reserves mean more tokens enter the market over time. This creates a hidden headwind. Holding a price floor like $1.25 today requires absorbing a much larger supply than it did in previous cycles. The weight of that growing supply is a real factor often missed in casual conversation.
Recent news seems positive on the surface. Spot XRP ETFs saw notable inflows, adding millions in a single day last week. The total network of XRP Ledger wallets has swelled to a record 8.24 million. But look closer. Despite these inflows, the price trend hasn’t changed. XRP is still down nearly 29 percent this year. The largest ETF inflow last month – over $22 million – gave only a temporary bounce before the decline resumed. This tells us that while institutional buying might put a temporary cushion under the market, it hasn’t been enough to overpower the selling pressure. Broader adoption news like central banks in Asia working with Ripple on cross-border payments offers a hopeful long-term narrative. However, the specifics on whether XRP itself is directly used remain unclear. Relying on such announcements for a price turnaround today is optimistic at best.
So where does that leave us? Claude’s analysis frames $1.25 as the critical line in the sand. A daily close below that level could trigger a swift move toward $1.15. The projection is that momentum from sellers may finally begin to slow in the $1.10 to $1.15 range, which sits about 15 percent below the current price. The model still assigns a 20 percent chance of a fall below the psychological $1.00 level. Looking out to the end of 2026, its scenarios are wide, from a bear case of $0.95 to a bull case of $2.10. The most likely outcome, according to this data, is that XRP has not yet confirmed its ultimate low. Claude estimates a 55 percent probability that the price will trade below $1.25 again before the year ends, making a retest more likely than a clean hold from here.
For you as an investor, watching specific price levels provides a clearer map than hopeful headlines. A true bottoming process would likely need to show strength through key milestones. First, XRP would need to reclaim its 20 day average around $1.37. Then, it must close above its 50 day average near $1.41. The most significant signal would be a weekly close above $1.45. Achieving that would strongly suggest the downward momentum has broken. Until then, the path of least resistance remains cautious. The immediate support at $1.25 is the gatekeeper. If it holds, the bulls have a foundation. If it fails, the focus shifts squarely to that $1.12 area, where the next real battle between buyers and sellers may begin.
- XRP sits at $1.31
- Recent low at $1.25
- Market valuation at $83 billion
- Total supply of 100 billion tokens
- 63 billion tokens in circulation
- Key support level at $1.25
| Scenario | Price Prediction |
|---|---|
| Bear Case | $0.95 |
| Most Likely Case | Below $1.25 |
| Bull Case | $2.10 |
